Waiting in Vain?

Loyal Cubs fan and Offering reader Gate sadly posed the question today: "Is it time to start talking about the Cubs 2007 team already?" At first glance, it seems that the answer is no; We're still 17 games away from the All-Star break, and 91 from the conclusion of the 2006 campaign. That's a lot of baseball. But let's look inside the numbers and find out if it's time for the "wait 'til next year conversation" yet:

Right now, the Cardinals are 42-28. That projects to a 97.2 win season. I think it's safe to assume that 97 wins will win the NL Central.

Right now, the Reds are in first in the NL wild card by 1.5 games at 39-34. That's a pretty bad wild card race (consider that the White Sox are leading the AL wild card at 46-25, and the Texas Rangers, in fourth place in the AL wild card, have an identical record to the Reds). The Reds' first place position right now projects to the wild-card winner winning 86.55 games. Now, I think that's unrealistic, so let's say that the wild card has to win about 91 games to get in (in the AL, it could be 100).

Right now, the Cubs are 28-43. They have 91 games to go. To win the Central, they would need to win 69 more games, or compile a record of 69-22 the rest of the way. That's a 76% win percentage. That means they would have to win every three-game series the rest of the season, sweep approximately every third series, and win at least 3 of 4 in the few four-game sets remaining.

As for the wild card, assuming they need 91 wins, that would translate to the Cubs needing a record of 63-28 the rest of the way. That's a 69.2% win percentage, which means they would have to win every series the rest of the year, sweep the two-gamers, and win 3 of 4 in every four-gamer.

In either scenario, they cannot lose a single series for the rest of the year unless they swept at least the next one, and cannot get swept unless they came back and swept the next two (in the case of the wild card) or three (in the case of the division, since they already needed to sweep at least one out of every three).

Okay then. Not realistic. So let's assume the best possible scenario. Let's assume that the National League will defy history, the wild card contenders will continue their current pace, and the last playoff spot from the NL will go to a team with 87 wins. That means the Cubs would need 59 wins to make it, or go 59-32 the rest of the way. That's a 65% win percentage, or right about two out of every three games. That means winning every series from here on out, with the possible margin of error of splitting, not losing, one two- or four- game series.

Now, let's look at the Cubs current progress. Since May 1, by the Unofficial Public Offering's Unofficial Count, they've won 5 series, lost 10 series, swept 0 series, been swept in 7 series, and split 1 series. Not good news if you need to go out and win the next 30 series in a row.

Here's the bottom line: to come back from this far back would be almost impossible for a good baseball team, much less a baseball team that's been swept in 7 of the last 15 series. Plus, to hit another bad slide would essentially drop their chances to zero, which, from where they are now, isn't far.

I think it's time for that conversation. The numbers don't lie. Sorry Gate.