Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Your 2006 Chicago Cubs


Well, our full squad is pretty much in attendance at Spring Training, and I am very excited to see the boys get back to work. We have some issues with the World Baseball Classic, where we're sending several key players, but everyone else is in Arizona ready to prepare for the 2006 campaign. With that, let's get to the Public Offering's 2006 Preview:

Preseason Award Picks and projected stats for 2006:
MVP: Derrek Lee (.317, 41 HR, 114 RBI)
MIP: Matt Murton (.293, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 19 SB)
Most Valuable Pitcher: Carlos Zambrano (20-6, 3.42 ERA)
Most Valuable Defensive Player: Jacque Jones
Most Valuable Newcomer: Juan Pierre (.298 Avg., .376 OBP, 42 SB, 104 runs)

And here is how your 2006 Cubs grade out by off-season moves and potential:

Starting Pitching: This is the biggest question mark on the team. Right now, we're looking at starting Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Greg Maddux, Glendon Rusch, and Jerome Williams. That's obviously going to change, as Kerry Wood gets healthy and off-season acquisition Wade Miller gets finished with his rehab. This could be the most dominant starting unit in the league, or it could struggle with injury and consistency issues. If we get 60 starts from Prior and Wood, we'll have no problems at all from the starters.
Off-season improvement: Marginal (Wade Miller)
Pre-season Grade: B/B+

Bullpen: The Cubs addressed a young, inconsistent bullpen first in the off-season by spending about $25 million on veteran relievers Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry. These two pitchers should add stability to the middle relief corps. With Ryan Dempster closing out games and the rest of the bullpen likely including Michael Wuertz, Will Ohman, Roberto Novoa, and Scott Williamson (With Rich Hill, Jon Koronka, and Todd Wellemeyer waiting in the wings), we should have a much stronger bullpen than last year. It also remains to be seen whether Kerry Wood helps out in relief as well. If Woody stays in the pen, he'll give us some great short relief innings. If he starts, you can count on Rusch or Williams coming from the rotation to help out this bullpen even more. I think we finally have the personnel that we need to protect late leads. In fact, our pen is probably more stable than the rotation right now.
Off-season improvement: Substantial (Eyre, Howry, and maturing of younger pitchers)
Pre-season Grade: A-

Outfield: Our outfield looks completely different than a year ago. We went out and signed Jacque Jones from Minnesota and Juan Pierre from Florida to replace the outgoing Corey Patterson and Jeromy Burnitz in center and right field, and farmhand Matt Murton will get a chance to start the year as an every day player in left. I like Murton a lot; he is still young but has shown the ability to hit to all fields, likes to run the bases, and does the little things. As for Pierre and Jones, I think we got one of the most hard-working leadoff men in the game (Pierre) and a great all-around player who is underrated because of a bad year in 2005 (Jones). I'm concerned that we don't have a good throwing arm in the outfield and we don't have a lot of power either, but our infielders hit a lot of home runs and we certainly gained a lot of ground in speed, defensive skill, baserunning ability, contact hitting, and character. All three outfielders are superb in the clubhouse and should really help team chemistry. The top of our lineup is going to give some teams problems, especially teams that have pitchers who don't like throwing from the stretch, and it should give our big bats a lot of opportunities. I'm very excited to see how this outfield gels and covers the smallish outfield at the Friendly Confines.
Off-season Improvement: Substantial, borderline outstanding
Pre-season Offensive Grade: B+
Pre-season Defensive Grade: A-

Infield: This is where the front office failed to make any substantial moves in the off-season. After letting Nomar Garciaparra go, the Cubs re-signed Neifi Perez and Jerry Hairston, picked up Todd Walker's option, and penciled in farmhand Ronny Cedeno as the everyday shortstop. The Cubs made a run at Rafael Furcal and couldn't pay him what the Dodgers offered, so we pretty much left our infield alone. I like Todd Walker at second base (especially for a paltry $2.5 million), and I think that Ronny Cedeno is a bit of a risk because he is so young and inexperenced, but I liked what I saw last year and he had a great off-season playing in South America. Jerry Hairston will probably play some outfield as well as infield, and Neifi Perez will be Cedeno's primary backup at shortstop. At the corners, we have our two big bats: Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. I expect both to have 30+ home run and 100+ RBI seasons, especially with our newfound speedsters batting ahead of them in the order. Both are slated to play in the WBC, which I suppose is okay, but I am worried about Aramis and his continued struggles with leg injuries. Aramis has improved immensely over the last season on defense, and Derrek Lee remains arguably the best defensive first baseman in the game. Our catchers are also both playing in the WBC, and that hurts our ability to really get a good relationship going with the new pitchers during Spring Training, which is the most critical time to cement pitcher-catcher communication and teamwork. In any case, I like Michael Barrett's bat but am concerned that our superstar pitchers have increasingly requested that backup Henry Blanco catch them...let's hope that Barrett is developing his ability to call games so that we don't have to trade offense for defense. Blanco is one of the best minds in the game, so I hope that Barrett can learn from him over the course of the year.
Off-Season Improvement: Marginal to none (Cedeno's improvement in winter ball)
Pre-season Offensive Grade: A-
Pre-season Defensive Grade: B+

Bench: Our reserves have quietly improved a lot over the off-season. We signed utilityman John Mabry from St. Louis, and extended a non-roster Spring Training invitation to Marquis Grissom, who is highly likely to make the team coming out of camp. Our five regular bench players will probably be Blanco, Mabry, Hairston, Perez, and Grissom, with star farmhand Felix Pie possibly entering the mix sometime into the season. That means that every one of our regulars are major league veterans and most can play more than one position. We should be experienced and versatile on the bench, and Dusty likes to use all of his players, so he should have a lot of options. Look for Perez to start at shortstop once a week, and don't be surprised to see Hairston in left, right, or second and Grissom starting against some left-handed pitchers. I think this bench could really contribute a lot.
Off-season Improvement: Substantial (Grissom and Mabry)
Pre-season Defensive Grade: A-
Pre-season Offensive Grade: B/B-


OVERALL: This is a very, very different Cubs team than the last two years for three principal reasons: 1) we have a chance to have a stable, healthy rotation. Woody is supposed to be ready to go in mid-April, and everyone else is on pace to start the year; 2) we're no longer going to be a home run dependant, feast-or-famine offense. We are going to hit fewer home runs this year, but will have much better totals in batting average, stolen bases, hit-and-run opportunities, successful sacrifices, and probably runs scored. I really like our small ball lineup, and I think it will allow Dusty to take more calculated risks as opposed to standing around hoping for a big home run; and 3) we finally have a deep, experienced bullpen that is full of players who know their roles. We aren't converting anyone to a position they've never played this year, we aren't using three or four guys who just got brought up from AAA, and we paid for top-flight relievers who fill a specific need.

That being said, we absolutely have to improve on the base paths, fielding the ball, and hitting for contact this year to have any chance at a division title or a playoff berth. We are fortunate that our divisional rivals (Houston and St. Louis) did not make great strides in the off-seaon, but with Milwaukee and Pittsburgh getting better, few games will be handed to the Cubs. We have lost more games in the last two seasons than I can count because we fail to do the little things- hit the cutoff man, mental mistakes on the base paths, not legging out extra base hits, pitchers failing to cover first base, throwing errors, etc, etc, etc. We have to become a more fundamentally sound team if we are going to contend this year.

We also need to be healthy, especially in the pitching staff, but that's something that doesn't warrant much further analysis. Prior and Wood have to keep their arms healthy, Rusch can't break down if we need him to start for the whole season, our aging bullpen guys have to be able to give us 70 or so appearances, and Maddux can't show his age. It's that simple.

I like this team. I like the clubhouse dynamic, I like that the players love playing for Dusty, and I like our potential. If we stay healthy, I'm thinking we win about 94-96 games, which likely will be enough for the division title.

Tentative first game at Wrigley Field this year for the Offering is either April 8 or 9th, the weekend of the home-opening series against the hated Redbirds. Target number of games to be attended, as usual, is 25 games- an ambitious yet realistic goal. I've been within a couple of that number each of the last two years.

Hope to see you at Wrigley.
Go Cubs.

Monday, February 13, 2006

R'n'R, and Fun with Pictures

Hello world. Weekend was good. Some rants and raves from the weekend that was:

Raves:

1) Ate food here on Friday, then had drinks here. Both were fun. The Whiskey is a little bit touristy by virtue of the Rush St. location, but it has a good staff, spacious chairs and couches in the back of the bar, and floor-to-ceiling windows for people-watching inside and out. Good times. Props to TheDad for staying up and boozing after the opera.

2) Saturday was a bar crawl with a pre-crawl gathering hosted by the Offering. Very good times. Catering thoughtfully provided by Sharky and we definitely got our money's worth out of the bar crawl.

3) Bought the Sin City Special Edition DVD. Simply one of the best DVDs ever released. First, the extended cut of the movie has all four subplots separated out into 4 distinct films instead of one long movie such as the one released in theaters. Additionally, there are two director commentaries, a "green-screen only" version of the movie (with no special effects), audio tracks of the audience reaction at the premiere of the film (so you can watch it as if you are at the premiere), the "long take" of Quentin Tarentino's scene, and much, much, much more. If you love movies, get this DVD. It has everything you could want to know about the project that was Sin City.

Rants:

1) Bar lines. The Valentine's Day bar crawl that we attended Saturday was way, way too overcrowded. When you arrive at 8:01 for an 8:00 bar crawl and there is a 200 person line at each of the bars involved, that's too many people. Bar1Events- get this figured out.

2) Movie hype. I finally saw Brokeback Mountain this weekend. It was good. Quite good, actually. A sad story that included many subtle performances. The hype surrounding this film, however, lessened the experience for me. All this talk about how Brokeback sets a new standard for romantic films and dwarfs all other attempts at portraying forbidden love was, in my opinion, not warranted. I thought it was very well done and tackled some difficult subject matter, but I don't see how it was a pivotal moment in drama film history, as a lot of the hype implied. If you want to read more from a Brokeback groupie, check out Screwsan's comments.

3) The Winter Olympics. Michelle Kwan withdrawing, several training accidents, Bode Miller started off with a fifth place finish in the downhill and then choked the combined...could we be less interested? There aren't enough storylines, there aren't enough famous stars, and we just don't take to these winter sports. Go U.S.A. I guess.

4) The Pro Bowl. Dear NFL, Nobody Cares. Nobody. Sincerely, Tim. As Peter King wrote, "It's the most irrelevant game in sports." Also, three of the six Bears elected to the game skipped out on it. The players don't even care.

And now, a Current Events edition of Fun with Pictures:

1) First and foremost, the SI Swimsuit Issue is out this week, which is something that the Offering always looks forward to, even in this age of Maxim, Playboy, and the internets. This year features an all-star cast of past cover girls, and it does not disappoint.

If you don't know, now you know- this is what it looks like when you arrive in heaven:



2) Dick Cheney shot a guy! The VP plugged Austin attorney Harry Whittington while on a hunting trip in Texas over the weekend with a 28-gauge shotgun. Even more amusing, the White House Press Corps has been raking Scott McClellan over the coals for the long-delayed release of the news. Right now the White House is saying that the VP's office left it up to the owner of the ranch where the incident happened to issue a release. Not credible. Anyway, here is a good pic of the VP himself handling the steel:

UPDATE: Apparently, the shooting victim has had a minor heart attack because some of the pellets are lodged in his heart. Seriously, Dick Cheney is Aaron Burr.

3) Sammy Sosa is claiming that he won't "beg for a job" just to get to 600 homers before he retires. He has been offered a $500,000 non-guaranteed contract by the Nationals, but probably won't take it because he won't be handed a spot on the major league team. That's understandable, considering he missed 60 games last year due to injury, hit .221, still managed to strike out 84 times despite missing almost half the year, hit an impressive 14 home runs in 380 ABs, and was paid $17,875,000 for his trouble. This guy is the worst kind of player: self-absorbed, astronomical sense of entitlement, absolutely no production or accountability, standoff-ish, and my personal favorite: he forgets how to speak a word of English every single time he gets asked a difficult question, whether by a reporter, member of Congress, or teammate. This guy speaks perfect English. He's been in the major leagues, doing press conferences, public appearances, and otherwise being completely immersed in American culture since 1989. And he was here before he was a major-leaguer. My contempt for Sammy Sosa knows no bounds. Anyway, here is a great picture of him (via deadspin):



That's all for today. This week is very busy with work and some friends in from out of town, and then TheGirl travels to Arizona this weekend, which usually means a Fritaturday is in sight.

More soon.
T

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Update: Singing a different (car)toon

I wanted to post a brief update on this ridiculous cartoon fiasco that has enraged the Muslim world and set off international political shockwaves in the last few days. I touched on it yesterday, but here are some new developments that paint a clearer picture of what actually is happening:

1) Apparently, these cartoons have been in print since September of 2005; the recent reprinting of the images in various EU countries is what sparked the current fiasco. There have also been rumors of Muslim clerics in Denmark adding more inflammatory images to the set of cartoons that they sent to colleagues in predominantly Muslim countries.

2) Now, Iranian newspapers are getting revenge by holding a contest for cartoons depicting the Holocaust as well as crimes committed by America and Israel.

3) Condi Rice and the President are biting back at Syria and Iran for intentionally stoking the anger of their citizens as well as refusing to protect embassies in their countries that have been attacked by protesters. Some Muslim leaders have joined in as well to urge non-violence.

4) A French newspaper has reprinted the controversial images in a plea for a free press, much to the chagrin of President Chirac. The Muslim world, it is safe to say, is not happy about this recent development.

5) Finally, the Danish newspaper that started it all is offering to publish the Holocaust cartoons that the Iranian newspaper is soliciting in response to the Muhammed cartoons.

Meanwhile, Muslim nations are boycotting Danish products, taking Danish imports off the shelves, and trying to cut off all economic activity with Denmark. That is not going to help the already tenuous trading and economic situation between the EU and some of these countries.

Stay tuned. This probably isn't over yet.

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Waylaid

Hello Offering faithful. Sorry for the long layoff, but things have been hectic in the last couple of weeks and I have not had the chance to keep the masses entertained for quite some time. I will take the increasing rudeness and impatience of your emails urging me to update this page as a compliment. I'm glad to see that this blog has become a regular party of your obviously irregular lives.

Time is still short, so let's just do a quick 2-week layoff catchup:

*Last weekend was a bit slow, with the troops never really putting forth a stellar effort either Friday or Saturday. I saw Rigoletto at the Lyric Opera on Friday; it was quite good but I thought it left a little be desired. The words in Verdi operas seem a little overcooked to me, and I thought the Duke of Mantua didn't have quite a big enough voice. I would have liked to see Pavarotti in that role in his prime.

*Super Bowl Extra Large turned out to be Super Bowl Extra Lame on Sunday afternoon. I had a subdued group of 18 or so at my bachelor palace, but the boring game, uninspired commercials, and general lack of excitement made it a somewhat underwhelming event. I had a good time, but this was about as beat as a Super Sunday can be. Seattle got jobbed a little bit by the refs, but neither team really played well and the Seahawks certainly had their chances. Miss the game? Check out the Sports Guy's running diary.

Two Super Bowl Notes:

1) This whole officiating controversey that has plagued the NFL throughout the 2005 playoffs has me wondering: is it even possible to get all the calls right in the NFL? We have our best crews doing the playoffs, we have the benefit of instant replay, we have allowed more time to be certain on the calls by allowing all the refs to confer before making a ruling, and we still blatantly miss lots of crucial, game-changing calls with alarming frequency. Maybe it's that some of these calls are simply too hard to see, and the camera angles don't always get the full picture either. I don't know. But the league needs to look at doing something to get these calls right. Too many playoff moments this year were ruined by bad calls. I'm not sure what the answer is, but I don't get paid to figure out it out. Someone solve this problem.

2) Jerome Bettis had a great career. He is a media darling, a good team player, and a great locker room presence. But he does not deserve to go to the Hall of Fame. In 13 seasons, he never led the NFL in rushing. He finished in the top-10 in rushing only five times in 13 years (with two 9th place finishes). He failed to hit 1,000 yards 5 times, and failed to hit 1,100 yards 8 times. He was, for his entire career, a one-dimensional player. He was a bad receiver (200 career catches), had the third-lowest average per carry of anyone in the top 25 in career rushing yards (3.9 yards), and averaged less than 4 yards per carry in 9 seasons, including 4 of his 1,000 yard seasons. He is tied for 8th in rushing touchdowns, but there are handful of great backs within a few scores, so he will undoubtedly fall off that list within a season or two.

He was durable, dependable, a good goal-line back, and a great Steeler, but that doesn't come close to putting him in the discussion of the greatest backs of all time. Want 10 that are better off the top of my head? Okay: Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, Emmit Smith, Gale Sayers, Franco Harris, Thurman Thomas, Earl Campbell, John Riggins, and the Juice. There you go.

*The Hawks are rolling right along, after a 26-point drubbing of Michigan at home, Iowa remains undefeated in Carver-Hawkeye and has taken over first place in the Big Ten. We have to figure out how to win on the road, starting with a big matchup at Northwestern tomorrow, where we have lost four of the last five games. Let's keep it up.

*One week until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. It's an exciting year for the Cubs, with lots of new acquisitions and the possibility of a healthy rotation for the first time in a couple of years. Our bullpen looks better too. Check out the Cubs Spring Training Guide.

On to non-sports related items:

*The Muslim world is in an uproar over cartoon depictions of the Prophet Muhammed that originally appeared in a Danish newspaper. I hope that the leaders of largely Islamic nations will soon ask that the protesters stop the violence (and Kofi Annan agrees). Four protesters (presumably all Muslim) have already been killed. I don't think the anger of the Muslim world is necessarily unjustified, but the negative consequences of the cartoons are multiplied when these demonstrations cause needless deaths.

One other note: I think this issue is a very important one (freedom of speech/press versus religious tolerance and respect) and we should feel free to discuss it here and elsewhere. But Islam forbids depictions of Muhammed, and out of respect for this precept, the Offering will not be publishing any of the controversial cartoons or linking to them on the internet.

*Samuel Alito was confirmed as the Supreme Court's 110th justice last week. Yee ha. It was a largely partisan vote (4 Dems broke ranks), and not a surprising one. This will give the right wing a solid block of four votes on most or all social issues (Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, and Alito), with a strong moderate block as well (Stevens, Breyer, Souter). This court is a young one (with the exception of 116 year-old John Paul Stevens), so it has a chance to make a lot of landmark decisions. I hope that the scales haven't tipped too far toward literal interpretation of the Constitution. I like implied rights.

*Apparently, the State of the Union is still strong. Record deficits, a military quagmire abroad, and rampant fear-mongering may indicate otherwise, but anyway: President Bush delivered his 5th SOTU address last week, and focused on Iraq, energy alternatives, and the success of his various domestic programs.

*R.I.P., Coretta Scott King. If you want to get learned on some civil rights stuff, check out this Offering post: Got MLK?

*Scientists have found a "garden of Eden" in New Guinea, a complete, untouched ecosystem hosting hundreds of new species of plants and animals. If you were going to discover something in your lifetime, wouldn't this be high up on your list? Isn't finding a land untouched by humans with literally hundreds of never-before-seen plants and animals so much better than finding a skeleton, or old artifacts, or even a pyramid or tomb? To me, this would be so much cooler.

*If you need to drink this soda, you need help.

*John McCain and Barack Obama are fighting over lobbying reform, but I'm not sure what McCain is so furious about. Maybe the GOP just felt like knocking a Democratic superstar down a notch or two. I don't know. Here is a good summary of the battle of words.

Finally, the Offering welcomes a regular reader to the Windy City as a brand new resident as of tomorrow. You're going to like Chicago, Speedy.

More later this week.
t