Loyal Cubs fan and Offering reader Gate sadly posed the question today: "Is it time to start talking about the Cubs 2007 team already?" At first glance, it seems that the answer is no; We're still 17 games away from the All-Star break, and 91 from the conclusion of the 2006 campaign. That's a lot of baseball. But let's look inside the numbers and find out if it's time for the "wait 'til next year conversation" yet:
Right now, the Cardinals are 42-28. That projects to a 97.2 win season. I think it's safe to assume that 97 wins will win the NL Central.
Right now, the Reds are in first in the NL wild card by 1.5 games at 39-34. That's a pretty bad wild card race (consider that the White Sox are leading the AL wild card at 46-25, and the Texas Rangers, in fourth place in the AL wild card, have an identical record to the Reds). The Reds' first place position right now projects to the wild-card winner winning 86.55 games. Now, I think that's unrealistic, so let's say that the wild card has to win about 91 games to get in (in the AL, it could be 100).
Right now, the Cubs are 28-43. They have 91 games to go. To win the Central, they would need to win 69 more games, or compile a record of 69-22 the rest of the way. That's a 76% win percentage. That means they would have to win every three-game series the rest of the season, sweep approximately every third series, and win at least 3 of 4 in the few four-game sets remaining.
As for the wild card, assuming they need 91 wins, that would translate to the Cubs needing a record of 63-28 the rest of the way. That's a 69.2% win percentage, which means they would have to win every series the rest of the year, sweep the two-gamers, and win 3 of 4 in every four-gamer.
In either scenario, they cannot lose a single series for the rest of the year unless they swept at least the next one, and cannot get swept unless they came back and swept the next two (in the case of the wild card) or three (in the case of the division, since they already needed to sweep at least one out of every three).
Okay then. Not realistic. So let's assume the best possible scenario. Let's assume that the National League will defy history, the wild card contenders will continue their current pace, and the last playoff spot from the NL will go to a team with 87 wins. That means the Cubs would need 59 wins to make it, or go 59-32 the rest of the way. That's a 65% win percentage, or right about two out of every three games. That means winning every series from here on out, with the possible margin of error of splitting, not losing, one two- or four- game series.
Now, let's look at the Cubs current progress. Since May 1, by the Unofficial Public Offering's Unofficial Count, they've won 5 series, lost 10 series, swept 0 series, been swept in 7 series, and split 1 series. Not good news if you need to go out and win the next 30 series in a row.
Here's the bottom line: to come back from this far back would be almost impossible for a good baseball team, much less a baseball team that's been swept in 7 of the last 15 series. Plus, to hit another bad slide would essentially drop their chances to zero, which, from where they are now, isn't far.
I think it's time for that conversation. The numbers don't lie. Sorry Gate.
Thursday, June 22, 2006
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Quick hits: Never Grow Up Edition
-I'm going to be 27 years old on Thursday, and I just spent $20 ordering this. Props to K-Rock for finding this on the internets, and for being the only person, once the item was found, to order it before me. TheGirl's reaction: "Please tell me you're kidding." I'm not proud of my immaturity. I don't hide it either.
-The Cubs have shown signs of improvement on offense and defense, and have won 3 in a row for the first time since April 23-25. I am rewarding them by attending tonight's game versus Andy Pettitte and the Astros.
-Dolph and I are throwing a joint birthday party on Saturday to celebrate our 27th year on this planet that will include this, this, and a journey downtown to see these guys. Birthdays are fun, but I actually prefer other people's birthdays to my own...probably because I like reasons to celebrate, and celebration itself, but not all the attention. Sharing parties is therefore a good idea for me. Happy birthday, Dolph.
- Get Well Soon, Big Ben. But once you are completely recovered, I'd like to slap you in your newly-repaired head. The fact that this guy is a 24-year old Super Bowl Champion quarterback with a limitless future, and still chooses to ride racing bikes without a helmet, after being repeatedly told by many not to do so, tells me that he should have that head examined while it's getting stitched up. You did a stupid thing, Ben. You were lucky. Don't do it again. And stop saying on national television that you don't think riding without a helmet is risky. In fact, you may have just annointed yourself the new national spokesman for helmet safety.
-Memo to USA Soccer: if you're trying to get the sports-loving public in America to be interested and supportive of your sport, embarrassing yourselves on a world stage isn't the way to do it. After looking anemic and timid in a 3-0 loss to the Czech Republic, there is only one (semi-realistic) option: beat Ghana, draw Italy, and pray to whomever you pray to that 4 points gets you out of pool play. With the goal differential already favoring the Italians, however, even this scenario probably spells doom for the Americans.
Man, it's perfect weather in Chicago this week. Get out there and use it.
-The Cubs have shown signs of improvement on offense and defense, and have won 3 in a row for the first time since April 23-25. I am rewarding them by attending tonight's game versus Andy Pettitte and the Astros.
-Dolph and I are throwing a joint birthday party on Saturday to celebrate our 27th year on this planet that will include this, this, and a journey downtown to see these guys. Birthdays are fun, but I actually prefer other people's birthdays to my own...probably because I like reasons to celebrate, and celebration itself, but not all the attention. Sharing parties is therefore a good idea for me. Happy birthday, Dolph.
- Get Well Soon, Big Ben. But once you are completely recovered, I'd like to slap you in your newly-repaired head. The fact that this guy is a 24-year old Super Bowl Champion quarterback with a limitless future, and still chooses to ride racing bikes without a helmet, after being repeatedly told by many not to do so, tells me that he should have that head examined while it's getting stitched up. You did a stupid thing, Ben. You were lucky. Don't do it again. And stop saying on national television that you don't think riding without a helmet is risky. In fact, you may have just annointed yourself the new national spokesman for helmet safety.
-Memo to USA Soccer: if you're trying to get the sports-loving public in America to be interested and supportive of your sport, embarrassing yourselves on a world stage isn't the way to do it. After looking anemic and timid in a 3-0 loss to the Czech Republic, there is only one (semi-realistic) option: beat Ghana, draw Italy, and pray to whomever you pray to that 4 points gets you out of pool play. With the goal differential already favoring the Italians, however, even this scenario probably spells doom for the Americans.
Man, it's perfect weather in Chicago this week. Get out there and use it.
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Reunited
I was in beautiful Middlebury, Vermont this past weekend for my 5-year college reunion. It was quite a celebration although it poured rain the entire time.
This was my first post-school trip down memory lane...I missed my 5 year high school reunion. It sounds kind of lame, but it really makes you take stock of your life when you get the 2-minute version of a hundred other people's lives in the span of 2 days.
Part of the benefit of going to a true liberal arts college is that you end up with a lot of people doing a lot of interesting things post-college...Middlebury really prides itself on being an "anti-trade" school. You therefore get fewer accountants, yes-men, and lackeys at huge firms. As a lackey at a large firm though, I suppose we're not immune.
A sampling of my closest friends includes doctors, lawyers, writers, construction managers, poets, pharmaceutical reps, museum curators, graduate students, musicians, finance wizards, talent agents, lab scientists, computer geeks, politicians, and many, many other strange and fun-to-hear-about jobs. A lot of my friends left their professions chosen out of college (many of them in the financial world) recently to follow aspirations they've always had but felt were impractical. I applaud that. Some of them (me included) have found different ways to include each other in their new careers. Good stuff.
The other notable thing that the weekend left me with is that there are lots of kinds of friends in life: those you lose touch with, those you weren't close to in the first place, those you stay in touch with and keep in your life forever, and those that you don't necessarily keep in close touch with, but don't need to in order to know that you'll always be tight.
It's the last kind that make me glad I made the trip, because not keeping in close touch with those people means you need to be reminded sometimes. It was great to see everyone last weekend.
More later this week.
This was my first post-school trip down memory lane...I missed my 5 year high school reunion. It sounds kind of lame, but it really makes you take stock of your life when you get the 2-minute version of a hundred other people's lives in the span of 2 days.
Part of the benefit of going to a true liberal arts college is that you end up with a lot of people doing a lot of interesting things post-college...Middlebury really prides itself on being an "anti-trade" school. You therefore get fewer accountants, yes-men, and lackeys at huge firms. As a lackey at a large firm though, I suppose we're not immune.
A sampling of my closest friends includes doctors, lawyers, writers, construction managers, poets, pharmaceutical reps, museum curators, graduate students, musicians, finance wizards, talent agents, lab scientists, computer geeks, politicians, and many, many other strange and fun-to-hear-about jobs. A lot of my friends left their professions chosen out of college (many of them in the financial world) recently to follow aspirations they've always had but felt were impractical. I applaud that. Some of them (me included) have found different ways to include each other in their new careers. Good stuff.
The other notable thing that the weekend left me with is that there are lots of kinds of friends in life: those you lose touch with, those you weren't close to in the first place, those you stay in touch with and keep in your life forever, and those that you don't necessarily keep in close touch with, but don't need to in order to know that you'll always be tight.
It's the last kind that make me glad I made the trip, because not keeping in close touch with those people means you need to be reminded sometimes. It was great to see everyone last weekend.
More later this week.
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