The Cubs are spending money like a Lincoln Park Trixie who nabbed an investment banker sans prenup these days. Some of their recent moves have been very well-advised, others, in the opinion of this blog, not so much. Let's talk about the minor ones before we get to the Main Event, which was yesterday's blockbuster news that
we grabbed Alfonso Soriano for a mind-boggling 8 seasons and $136 million dollars, the fifth-richest baseball contract of all time.
Let's start at the beginning though, and see how the front office grades out:
Aramis Ramirez re-signing (5 Yrs, $73M): As most Cubs fans know, Aramis signed a four-year deal two years ago that allowed him to opt out of the final two years if he chose. Seeing as he had career highs of 38 HRs and 119 RBI in 2006, opting out was a no-brainer.
The Cubs brought him back with a much better deal at age 28, making him a Cub through 2011. This deal was positive for a few reasons: he's still young enough to be productive for five more years, slugging third basemen are very hard to find, Aramis' numbers are top-tier offensively at any position, and he has expressed a desire to be a Cub for life on numerous occasions. The flip side of the coin is that Aramis' effort on the field is highly questionable at times, he produced almost all of his numbers last year after the Cubs were out of the playoff race (he had a horrendous start to 2006), and we may have overpaid for him.
To me, this deal was a good thing for one reason over all others: the damage was done two years ago when we gave him the opt-out clause. We had a chance to lock him up back then for 4 or 5 years and didn't do it. He then opted out when we already had a very long shopping list for the off-season- we needed at least two starters, bullpen help, a slugging corner outfielder, someone to replace the almost-certainly gone Juan Pierre, and possibly a middle infielder as well. We just couldn't afford to add a third basemen to the shopping list. We needed to keep the pieces we already had, and for that reason, I'm glad we paid for him. Let's just hope that included in his new deal is a requirement that he runs to first base. Grade: A-
Kerry Wood re-signing (1 Yr, $1.75M): On paper, this may look like throwing good money at bad money. We've been burned by Woody so many times in the last few seasons, it's hard to believe that he is going to be able to help us at all. But signing him to a one-year, incentive-laden deal is almost a no-lose situation. When you're going to have a payroll of $125 million, why not spend 1% of it on a guy who has proven to have overpowering stuff, is willing to pitch anywhere in the rotation or bullpen, and is reportedly throwing very well after spending much of the last two years on the DL? If he gets hurt again, we'll have no long contract to pay out and he can go on his merry way. Plus,
GM Jim Hendry claims that he was offered twice what the Cubs gave him in base salary alone by other teams, and he chose to stick it out with the Cubs. He feels like he made a promise to the Cubs and hasn't fulfilled it, so he's giving up additional salary to do so. You have to like that in a player. This is a reasonable price to pay for a guy who is out to prove something. All that being said, I don't have any expectations for Woody in 2007. He just hasn't been able to do anything in the last three years,
notching just 12 wins since 2003. It's a cheap gamble, but one with little chance of realizing the upside
. Grade: B-
Mark DeRosa signing (3 Yrs, $13M): The Cubs signed the 9-year journeyman following a career year in 2006 (135 games played, 40 doubles, 13 HRs, and 74 RBI) after playing sparingly over the previous 8 seasons. I think the general view on this deal is that Mark DeRosa has had an uninspiring career as a utility sub (193 RBI in 9 years) and he parlayed one good year into a contract that may be a little above his value. In addition to the money, Mark DeRosa was excited to come to the North Side because he was offered the chance to be our everyday second baseman, after bouncing around between 6 different positions in his career. We have to think that this deal was made partially because the front office sees farmhand Ryan Theriot as a valuable bench player but not an everyday starter, and once-promising second-year shortstop/second baseman Ronny Cedeno is probably headed to the minors to start 2007. We needed a middle infielder who has experience and glove skills, and DeRosa fits the bill for a manageable price. The other positives in this deal are that DeRosa can adequately play several positions, making us flexible with substitutions and lineups, and he crushes left-handed pitching (to the tune of .342 last season), something that the Cubs desperately need. He is also known an excellent character guy and someone that is good in the clubhouse, a trait you can never have enough of. I think we probably paid too much for him, and he is certainly not going to set the world on fire, but he fills a need adequately and seems to be an excellent teammate. Grade: B
Wade Miller re-signing (1 Yr, $1.5M) This deal is similar to the Kerry Wood deal. We paid a cheap price for a pitcher who did nothing for us last year in the wake of a long rehab from injury (Miller made 5 starts and went 0-2 with a 4.57 ERA), but has been a winner in the past and may well still have some good seasons left in him. I think the front office wants to go into spring training with a surplus of pitching, expecting that at least some of our disabled list All-Stars will return to infirmary at some point in 2007. I think Wade Miller has good stuff (62-45 in his career) and could potentially be a sleeper as a valuable contributor this year. If the Cubs don't sign any frontline starters in free agency, you'd have to think he'll get a shot to make the rotation to start the year. This is purely a wait-and-see signing, with little risk because of the salary. I'm fine with it. Grade: B/B+
Henry Blanco re-signing (2 Yrs, $5.25M): Henry Blanco has been one our best backups over the last couple of years from a purely non-offensive standpoint. He manages the staff well, calls a great game, is very solid defensively (threw out 15 of 39 base-stealers last year and has thrown out 41.4% in his careers, second among active catchers) and seems to be well-liked by everyone. However, he will turn 36 next season and can't hit. He hit .266 last year, which was a career high, and included some awful slumps. We rewarded this offensive explosion last year (6 HRs, 37 RBI) with a two-year deal that will keep him in Chicago through his 37th birthday, with a mutual option for the 2009 season. I wish we could do more with the position of backup catcher, especially because Big Hank played in 74 games last year, suggesting that the position is a big part of our team. But you can't have everything, and a hitting backup catcher is simply too far down on our list. I think whether Henry Blanco, while by all accounts a great guy, just isn't worth almost $3M a year as a .225 career hitter. He's also getting old, especially for a catcher.
What really worries me about this deal is that it adds fuel to these nasty rumors about Michael Barrett being available in exchange for pitching help. I know we need pitching, but finding a catcher with the offensive abilities of Michael Barrett is rare at best and he is eminently affordable for us (in the last year of a 3 Yr, $12M deal). We have nobody else to provide pop at the bottom half of our order and I think it would be foolish to trade him. He's young, we got him off of the scrap heap, and we should take advantage of the oh-so-rare power-hitting position player with an attractive price tag. Please, Jim Hendry- don't trade Barrett for some middle-tier, 13-11 pitcher who will get killed when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. Grade: B/B- (if Barrett is traded and Blanco starts, D/D-)
Neil Cotts for David Aardsma and Carlos Vasquez: I like this trade. I don't like the White Sox, but I'm glad our front office can get along with them. I never thought that David Aardsma truly got comfortable enough in a Cubs uniform to contribute anything, although at 24 he still has a lot of pitching left in him. Carlos Vasquez seems to have had a good but fairly unremarkable season in 2006 bouncing between A-ball and double-A ball, and I think that Neil Cotts is a guy who can come in and help right away. He can throw heat, he's left-handed, and can make a ton of appearances. He had a very bad second half last year, but it didn't seem to be pitching- or stuff-related, so let's hope he can get back to his 2005 form (4-0, 1.94 ERA in 69 appearances). One thing that worries me slightly is that it seems someone told him he may get a chance to start for the Cubs, which seems risky. Making the switch from the 'pen to the rotation has been an iffy proposition for Cubs pitchers in recent years, and yielded bad results. It's like going from TV to the movies- yes, it's theoretically possible, but I don't think you're going to see good results that often. I hope Cotts settles into a bullpen role, and doesn't end up as a cautionary tale for guys who think they can start. Grade: B+
PROS
1) Say what you want about the terms, the Cubs went out and got the premiere position player in the free agent market. We sent a signal that we want to win, right now, and we're willing to spend to get the players we need to do so. And for Cubs fans, that's a refreshing change.
2) We are now contenders in a wide-open division.
Peter Gammons makes a great point in his blog: almost all of the NL Central teams are retooling parts of their rosters, and the Cardinals have to be the least scary defending champs of all time. The Cubs still need a starter or two, but at this point, on paper, we have a great chance of getting to the top of the division next year. We certainly have the offense for it already.
3) We solved our leadoff problem, center field problem, and power outage all at once. JP gave us great speed and mediocre defense. Soriano replaces those things plus adds serious pop at the top of the lineup.
5) The top half of our offense is now on par with any offense in the National League, period. Soriano is an .835 career OPS guy and when you put him in the lineup with Lee and Aramis, you're going to score runs.
CONS
1) The length and value of this deal is borderline crazy. We're going to be paying Soriano $17M when he's 37 and 38 years old, an age where power and speed are usually nowhere to be found.
Buster Olney points out that when premiere players like A-Rod, Manny, or Derek Jeter signed analogous deals with their teams, they were 25, 28, and 26. Soriano will be 31 in January. It's a little late in his career for a team to be committing so many resources to him.
2) His 40-40 abilities are unbelievable, but it's hard to look at his stats and think he'll do as well next year. Soriano was clearly just going for that benchmark this year,
as he was caught stealing a whopping 17 times against his 41 steals. Let's hope he is a little more judicious about his base-stealing in 2007, even if he totals fewer thefts.
3) He is a Sosa-Patterson style free swinger. Soriano hits bombs and gets around the bases with the best of them, but he's also stuck out at least 121 times per year in the last six years, and struck out a career-high 160 times in 2006. It's feast or famine with Soriano, and Cubs fans know that we need to build an offense around patience and on-base percentage, as opposed to the home-run derby teams we've tried to succeed with in recent seasons.
4) Although Soriano led the league in outfield assists last year, he is generally regarded as a below-average defender and only has one season in the outfield under his belt. We'll likely ask him to move positions again (from left field to center), and resign ourselves to a very, very mediocre defensive outfield next season.
It's too early, in my mind, to grade out this deal. We look like with a little help in the rotation, we could contend next year. Our lineup, right now, looks like this:
1) Alfonso Soriano, CF
2) Mark DeRosa, 2B
3) Derrek Lee, 1B
4) Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5) Jacque Jones, RF
6) Michael Barrett, C
7) Cesar Izturis, SS
8) Matt Murton, LF
If we make a play for a corner outfielder and put Murton on the bench, we're going to be even more powerful. I'm cautiously optimistic, if for no other reason than the Trib finally seems to get it: you need to make waves in the free agency market if you want the kind of success that breeds fan loyalty. They've had it too easy for too long with Cubs fans. We're too nice to them. Let's hope this is the beginning of an age of reciprocity.
Devin "Anytime" Hester scans the crowd 
